The voters of the Czech Republic delivered a clear, hard blow to the political abdomen this weekend. They knocked the two giants of the right and left down on their knees. They pushed the traditional kingmaker- KDU-CSL- clear out of parliament. Two of the most prominent politicians- Jiri Paroubek and Pavel Bem- resigned party functions.
1990 may have marked the return of multi-party democracy, but 2010 could signal the arrival of an active and aware electorate.
The first lesson of the elections is that voters are fed up with the way the twin giants- Social Democrats and ODS- have run the country. Instead of the usual pendulum swing in votes between the two parties, both experienced a drastic drop in their support. CSSD still managed to win 9 out of 14 regions, but with only 22% of the vote. ODS saw its share of the regions drop from 8 (in 2006) to 4 and its number of votes plummet by 830,000; in one of the greatest shocks to the system, the party lost even in its stronghold, Prague.
The twin Gullivers were overwhelmed by the Lilliputians. The ratio of ODS-CSSD voters to other voters dropped from 2.1 (2006) to .73. In Prague, the ratio dropped to .67, which should make for a very interesting municipal campaign this fall.
Two minority parties, TOP 09 and Veci Verejne, benefited the most from the exodus from ODS and CSSD. TOP 09 became the first party aside from the twin giants to win an election region (Prague) in the last three elections, and received the highest voting result for a non-twin party since the Communist result of 2002. Veci Verejne roughly doubled the number of votes the Greens and KDU-CSL received in the last election.
The third minority party- KSCM- continued its gradual decline. In the last three elections, its turnout has dwindled from 883,000 to 685,000 to this weekend’s 590,000. It was still enough to win 26 seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
Overview of the results in 2006 and 2010
The three parties in parliament, however, were not the only receptacles of the flight away from CSSD and ODS. Voters looking for change trickled in rivulets into smaller pools throughout the political spectrum. As a result, the new parliament will be the least representative of the last decade. Nearly one out of every 5 voters (18.8%) cast their ballots for parties that did not reach parliament. This reverses a trend toward fewer, bigger parties (in 2006, only 6% of the votes went to parties beneath the 5% threshold for entry into parliament). In eight out of the 14 districts, the number of voters for non-parliamentary parties was either the first (Zlin) or second highest number of ballots cast. Despite displacing KDU-CSL and the Greens in Parliament, TOP 09 and VV should not be too content: the non-threshold parties combined to out-perform VV in every region and TOP 09 in 10 out of the 14 regions. The sheer size of the number of unrepresented voters- 985,000- presents a golden opportunity, and a grave warning, to all the parties of parliament.
So, what happens next?
No one knows. The twin giants not only “lost” the elections, but also their chairs (although Petr Necas seems a comfortable and competent substitute). They now must endure weeks or even months of internal turmoil. To add to its worries, ODS faces a fall municipal election that is likely to center on the controversial mayorship of Pavel Bem.
CSSD’s best strategy appears to be an active and constructive opposition focused on curbing corruption and protecting a fiscally sustainable social system. The party still has a power base in the regions and effective policies at the local level could help the party rebound quickly.
ODS must form and head a government to withstand the threat of TOP 09. That government must stabilize public finance and meaningfully reduce corruption if it is to repair the party’s reputation with its base in the business community. And, perhaps most of all, ODS needs to resolve its biggest weakness: the reputation of Prague City Hall. ODS appears to have two choices: remove from of the least popular names from its candidate list, or risk (at best) them being removed by preferential votes or (at worst) by continued voter flight to other parties.
The two new parties also have a tough road ahead. TOP 09 and Veci verejne must now transfer their promise into reality, a process (as both CSSD and ODS can attest) full of details and decisions that can blemish their image. It will not be easy. Neither has a developed party structure, or a deep pool of experienced parliamentarians: they will need the fire power of government ministries to succeed.
Furthermore, the media will be watching them carefully. VV has not been able to shake rumors that major lobbyists are behind it, including Roman Janousek. The driving force of TOP 09, Miroslav Kalousek, has not been able to convince the public that his own motivations are not improperly influenced by Richard Hava, the arms trader. Both parties will have early tests with the Temelin expansion, the EU directive on military procurements, and the tender for environmental clean-up. One misstep and the two parties could share the same fate as ODA, the Freedom Union, the Greens, and KDU-CSL.
Given the political needs of each of the parties, a coalition led by ODS and including VV and TOP 09 appears the obvious choice. The 118 votes this coalition would control in parliament would be the largest working margin of any government since 1992. The number is deceptive. Neither VV nor TOP 09 possesses true right wing credentials. To supplant ODS as the chief party of the right, TOP 09 will have to propose better reforms and exhibit better control over the public budget than ODS. If it goes too far to the right, it might alienate those young voters who like the image of Schwarzenberg better than the ideology of Kalousek. Imagine, for instance, if TOP 09 proposes that university students pay tuition.
In the case of VV, the party must share a government with two parties who do not share the populistic traits that propelled VV to victory. VV’s populism will be under severe pressure if ODS and TOP 09 begin pressing for fiscal and social reforms. Expect CSSD to drive a wedge in such a coalition by forcing ODS and TOP 09 to back their campaign rhetoric with action.
Will the clear political logic become reality, and what will that reality produce?
There are too many unknowns to know how it will all turn out. We have seen that Petr Necas is capable of running a campaign, and has the temperament to run a government. We know that Miroslav Kalousek is one of the craftiest dealmakers of the past 20 years. Those seem the only certainties. We do not know whether Karel Schwarzenberg will play an active role in domestic politics. We do not know how effective Radek John will be at the daily grind of running a government. We do not know who will run the Social Democrats (one of the favorites, Michal Hasek, may provide the same fresh wind that Necas gave ODS). We do not know whether the meltdown in Greece will spread across Europe.
We do know, however, that the Czech voter has revolted against the political establishment. They have reduced the power of the two titans of post-revolution politics and pushed their chairs into resigning. They have given a chance to two new parties to change the political climate. They have shown that they are willing to give their votes to parties who may not have the support to represent their views in Parliament, but reflect their views more accurately than the ones in Parliament do. And, finally, and perhaps most importantly, the voters have served notice that they reserve the right to choose who they want to represent them, not the party power structure. The roots of democracy are growing stronger.
Written by Weston Stacey, AmCham Executive Director
