In May, industrial production fell more than expected month-on-month after the previous expansion. The reason is the limited supply of production components. The year-on-year comparison is still strongly influenced by last year's slump. Weaker industrial production was also reflected in a reduction of the foreign trade surplus. On the other hand, construction grew slightly in May. From the financial market point of view, production data surprised negatively; however, this should not affect the expected further tightening of monetary policy.

Inflation remained at higher levels in June, slightly above market estimates and the CNB forecast. The main reason for higher inflation is core prices excluding food and energy. Overall, the surprise is small and implies a continuation of the CNB's willingness to further tighten monetary policy in the near future.