Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth
This section reports on economic policy initiatives of the Czech government, the EU, and other entities that have a direct impact on the competitiveness of the country. It also includes information on economic priorities of the AmCham and other leading associations.
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Spotlight issue
Inflation peaks close to 10%
At the beginning of the year, inflation accelerated to 9.9% yoy. This was slightly above market and CNB expectations, but fears of a much higher price growth did not materialise. According to our preliminary estimate, core inflation, on the other hand, is slightly lower than expected, which reduces the need for further tightening of monetary policy. Nevertheless, due to concerns about inflationary expectations and the pass-through of higher energy prices into other items in the consumer basket, we expect a slight increase in the CNB's main interest rate at the next meeting.
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Taming the Inflation Shrew
Components subcontracting set to boost the economy We expect an improvement in the supply chain situation, which should support production and help the economy grow at a rate of 4.9% this year, on our forecasts. However, economic policy tightening should gradually slow the growth rate to below 3% in 2023.
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Monthly forecast: The industry probably revived before the end of the year
Data on car production and leading indicators suggest that industrial production may have grown significantly in November. Higher car sales and a still-solid labour market may have helped retail sales. On the other hand, deteriorating consumer confidence and accelerating inflation are holding back real retail sales. Year-on-year inflation probably rose again towards 7% at the end of the year. We expect this level to be exceeded in January.
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