Czech healthcare withstood the massive stress of several waves of covid. Now the system will need to absorb a few hundred thousand sudden new users as Ukrainians take up temporary residence (of an indeterminate length) in the country. 

The war in Ukraine has affected the global economic outlook. The fears of potential disruption to Russian energy imports have pushed commodity prices up, which is likely to further exacerbate the already severe inflationary pressures. A shortage of Russian energy would also lower GDP growth, especially in highly dependent Europe. Moreover, the war is likely to hinder the expected easing of supply-chain issues. Given this, we have decided to revise our forecasts for Czech key macro and financial variables ahead of the regular quarterly update. We have increased our inflation forecast from 8.8% to 11.5% for this year. In addition, we have lowered our estimate for GDP growth from 4.9% to 3.1%. In our view, the CNB is likely to continue raising interest rates. Previously, we had expected rates to reach a peak of 5%, but now we see them peaking at 5.5%. Bringing interest rates back to policy-neutral level is likely to be postponed until next year.