Defying every prediction, the Conservative Prime Minister of the UK David Cameron won the general elections of 7 May with an outright majority in the House of Commons, becoming the only Prime Minister after Margaret Thatcher to win more seats after 4 years in government. The second Labour trails almost 100 seats behind – this historically bad achievement forced its Leader Ed Miliband to resign. The failure of Labour was in fact a success for the Scottish National Party, which practically monopolized Scotland – winning 53 eats of its 56, the vast majority of them from Labour. Also the outgoing junior coalition partner of the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, did extremely badly and were degraded from a swing party to an insignificant 8-member club in the House of Commons. The outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg therefore resigned as LibDem leader. The anti-EU UK Independence Party became no. 3 party of the UK, with almost 13% of the overall votes. But thanks to UK´s majority first-past-the-post voting system, they only got one MP seat. Even the outspoken leader Nigel Farage failed to secure a seat, which was the reason why he became the third leader of the election night to resign. The observers add another looser to the picture – the pollsters and the media. Absolutely nobody expected such a clear outcome of the elections, such a clear victory of the Tories that David Cameron hours after the election travelled to the Buckingham palace for permission to form a majority government. Pollsters predicted 100% chance of a hung parliament where no party would hold a majority and a huge long-term political crisis.
But even though they were so wrong about the immediate outcome of the elections, the crisis might still come. David Cameron announced that he will hold his promise to organize an in-out referendum on the EU. This will surely split his party and maybe also the population. Also, since Scotland practically distanced itself from Westminster politics, its representatives will surely mind their own agendas – the main being of course Scottish independence. Such calls will surely become louder because of the referendum on the EU – the Scots are strongly pro-European. And if ever Britain votes to leave the EU, it will not take long for the Scots to leave the UK.
20th February 2019
25th January 2019