In the week ahead, Ireland is holding a referendum on the fiscal pact or ‘The Treaty on Stability, Co-ordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union’. Irish will decide about their future within the Euro area on 31 May. Even though recent opinion polls show that tight majority would vote for the pact, both the Irish government and the EU are nervous about the final results.
Both the Nice Treaty (2001) and Lisbon Treaty (2008) referendums were lost in Ireland. Voting 'no' would be economically perilous, as Ireland would lose access to the permanent rescue fund, The European Stability Mechanism. Moreover, it would be another rejection of the European strategy of combating crisis after Greek and French elections. However, even the Irish ‘no’ would not stop the Treaty from coming into force, since only 12 Euro area members are needed for the Treaty to be adopted.
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