According to the 2016 OECD Employment Outlook published in July 2016, real wages fell sharply during the crisis in Greece, Ireland, Japan, Portugal, Spain, and the Baltic States. Comparing real wage growth during 2000-07 with 2008-15, a number of other countries, including the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, and the United Kingdom, experienced a sharp deceleration.
By 2015, real hourly wages in these countries were more than 25% below where they would have been if wage growth had continued at the rate observed during 2000-07. This wage gap exceeded 20% in Greece, Hungary, and Ireland.
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According to data recently published by the World Economic Forum, real wages in the Czech Republic grew by 1.1 % between 2007 and 2015.
In its forecasts, Komerční banka expects solid real wage growth due to deflation in most of the CEE region. The unemployment rate in the CEE region has been steadily declining. Employment is reaching historically high levels and the market is already starting to show a labour shortage. Also significant structural changes are apparent on the market. In the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, the unemployment rate has already reached the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), which creates an upward pressure on wage growth. The seepage of higher wages into the price level is however likely to be only very gradual.
23rd July 2018
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