The European Commission published its Summer 2018 Interim Economic Forecast. It covers the years 2018 and 2019 and includes data on gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation for all 28 EU Member States.
According to the Commission's forecast, growth is set to remain strong in 2018 and 2019, at 2.1% this year and 2% next year in both the EU and the euro area. However, after five consecutive quarters of vigorous expansion, the economic momentum moderated in the first half of 2018 and is now set to be 0.2 percentage points lower in both the EU and the euro area than had been projected in the spring.
Growth momentum is expected to strengthen somewhat in the second half of this year, as labour market conditions improve, household debt declines, consumer confidence remains high and monetary policy remains supportive.
According to the Commission's forecast, fundamentals remain solid but growth is set to moderate. The fundamental conditions for sustained economic growth in the EU and the euro area remain in place. The moderation in growth rates is partly the result of temporary factors, but rising trade tensions, higher oil prices and political uncertainty in some Member States may also have played a role.
Globally, growth remains solid but rates are becoming more differentiated across countries and regions.
The forecast baseline assumes no further escalation of trade tensions. Should tensions rise, however, they would negatively affect trade and investment and reduce welfare in all countries involved. >> More.
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Evropská komise dnes vydala letošní přehled zaměstnanosti a sociální situace v Evropě. Zaměstnanost v #EU ještě nikdy nebyla tak vysoká: práci má 238 mil lidi. Výzvou je nyní zejména digitalizace a automatizace. Více o #ESDE2018 → https://t.co/EUOUUph7eF pic.twitter.com/LlKgPTeDsV— Evropská komise v ČR (@ZEK_Praha) July 13, 2018
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