Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth

This section reports on economic policy initiatives of the Czech government, the EU, and other entities that have a direct impact on the competitiveness of the country. It also includes information on economic priorities of the AmCham and other leading associations.

Spotlight issue

30th September 2021 / Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth

Czech economic rebound in 2Q supported by rapid easing of COVID restrictions

The third and final CZSO estimate published today confirmed that Czech GDP increased 1.0% qoq in 2Q after a 0.4% decline in 1Q. In year-on-year terms, the economy grew 8.1% (the previous estimate was 8.2% yoy), with a significant effect of a lower base from 2Q20. Economic activity almost reached pre-crisis levels, hitting 95% of the level seen in 4Q19.
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20th September 2021 / Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth

Elevated inflation to accelerate pace of monetary policy tightening

Inflation has accelerated markedly in recent months, reaching 4.1% yoy in August. Core inflation increased to a historical high of 4.8% yoy, with widespread price increases, especially in services. At the end of the year, we expect headline inflation to be close to 5.4%, but even higher value is a risk. In our view, this will force the central bank to raise interest rates faster. At the next bank board meeting on 30 September, we expect rates to be raised by 50bp. Monetary policy tightening should continue over the rest of the year, with the repo rate reaching 2% at year-end, from the current 0.75%. However, high inflation will dampen the impact of higher nominal rates, as real interest rates are likely to remain deeply negative.
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16th September 2021 / Economic policy / Macroeconomic Indicators, Economic Growth

Inflation accelerates; CNB will fasten interest rate hikes

Inflation in August again surprised significantly upward above all expectations. Services are becoming more expensive, but price increases are running across the consumer basket. Rising inflation may be largely a temporary phenomenon, but fears of rising inflation expectations are likely to force the CNB to tighten monetary policy more quickly. At the end of September, we expect the CNB's key rate to increase 50 basis points to 1.25%.
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Members of the American Chamber of Commerce in the Czech Republic